Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, endorsed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for a second term in office today according to the Iranian press. He is expected to be sworn in on Wednesday.

This means that any future protests by Iranians against the regime and the election results will be attacked even more ferociously by the state apparatus, seeing as Ahmadinejad will shortly enjoy the full legitimacy that his swearing in will give him.

After weeks of violent repression, the arrest of journalists and foreign nationals, the recalling of several ambassadors to Iran, the carpeting of several Iranian ambassadors in Europe and elsewhere, and accusations of interference in Iranian affairs by foreign countries, the stage is set for the future.

Israel has commented little on the events in Iran but is sure to be analysing its future diplomatic and military options in the light of the sea changes that have taken place. Those future options will surely mirror Tehran’s hardened attitude.

Iran is dramatically upping the stakes here, first of all to quell unrest by Iranian citizens, but also to warn the world that Iran will not accept foreign comment on its affairs on its own soil.

This go for bust policy is doomed to backfire on Iran.

And it is playing right into Israel’s hands.

The Iranien regime will survive the current unrest because the opposition, although widespread, is not coordinated and does not have a strong enough leader or a clear enough goal. Neda was a rallying point but not the aim of the protests, which was to obtain fresh and fair elections. That objective is now unattainable.

In other words, we seem to be heading for a situation in which Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is going to be around for a while to come.

Ahmadinejad is a fierce supporter of Iran’s plans to develop the means to produce nuclear weapons and has made that policy clear over the last few years.

And that’s where Israel comes into the equation.

The idea of nuclear weapons development in a country which already has the rocket capacity to deliver them as far as Israel has been largely opposed by Western governments and, of course, Israel.

A sizeable part of Western opinion however, up to now, has been hostile to veiled Israeli threats to destroy nuclear facilities in the event of Iran getting close to producing a missile-projected weapon.

But the tide of negative opinion towards the Iranian regime is increasing quickly in the West and the Middle East, and, for the moment at least, many supporters of Iran’s right to develop nuclear weapons, and their opinion that Iran has the right to have them, have taken to their bunkers and are silent.

And that is precisely what Israel needs.

The Jerusalem Press carried an article recently which quoted Yuval Steinitz, Israels’ Finance Minister, as saying that Iranians are now questioning the rule of the regime and that Iran’s capacity to export Islamic revolution has been reduced. This is being interpreted in Tel Aviv and elsewhere that provocative statements out of Iran regarding the development of nuclear weapons capability will not be as passively received by the Iranian population as they were before.

In a telling phrase, he also said that when states see a government declining, other countries are less motivated to maintain relations with it.

He perceives the possibility that there is optimism that the current turmoil would ultimately result in the end of Iran’s nuclear ambitions due not only to external pressure, but internal opposition.

This is because Iran is at present heading straight towards the kind of isolation it has been trying to avoid for years.

The Israeli government has been notable by its absence lately. This is because any comment by leading Israeli politicians would only inflame passions.

American President Barack Obama’s understandable reticence to be accused of interfering in Iran’s internal affairs follows that line.

It seems clear that the West and Israel are letting Ahmadinejad stew in his own juice right now.

Future events will tell us how intent he still is in his intentions to persue his nuclear programme.

But, while we are waiting, Israel is surely quite content to be sitting on the sidelines, counting on the fact that Western political and public opinion will be less critical if ever Israel decides to harden its stance towards the ever more belligerant Ahmadinejad.

Ahmadinejad has finally managed to do what years of Israeli public relations moves have failed to achieve – legitimise Israel’s attack-as-defense policy.

His blatant election swindle, his violent oppression of opposition in his country and his declared intention to press ahead with his nuclear programme all mean that, if necessary, Israel will finally be able to openly declare its intention to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities using military means if work on them continues.

Several Middle East countries have quietly announced in little-publicised statements that they will allow Israeli planes to overfly their airspace if ever Israel decides to attack Iran’s nuclear installations, or offer them other passive aid facilities.

Also, America has just offered “umbrella” protection to many Mideast countries in the event of Iranian belligerence. This is a first for America, which previously offered umbrella protection uniquely to its staunchest allies.

Israel may not be saying much right now, but is aware that Iran has painted itself into a corner.

If Iran was ever estimated by Israel to be preparing to break out of that corner by means of the threat of deploying nuclear weapons those weapons would surely be attacked.

And Israel knows that the West and half of the Middle East, including public opinion, would have no option but to follow.