My readers will know that I firmly believe that Palestinians must be able to live in peace, without outside interference. I believe that it applies to Israel too. I also respect the vote of the Palestinian people that put Hamas in power.

I also believe that the West should insist on the following;

Israel MUST cease fire, respect Palestinian rights, and keep agreements; Palestinians MUST halt rockets, repudiate terror, and work with moderates towards a new unity.

In that context I thought I’d give you some information I have found from independant intelligence analysis organisations here in the West, to give you a Western IB view of what’s happening, because I know (I have read them) that there are some (perfectly understandably) violent reactions in certain Mideast press circles which may sometimes speak more out of (again understandably) vengeance than objectivity.

I am NOT sending this to colour your opinion, just to help you see clear and decide by having as much info as possible.

This is a short summary of what I found.

ISRAEL
There are two theories about their intentions. The first theory is that Israel does not have the intention of stopping its military operations until there is a formal promise of, and concrete proof of, Hamas stopping its rocket firing into Israel. For Israelis, stopping their operations before Hamas stops rocketing is not an option because Hamas would not be obliged to stop afterwards and could then claim they have won a “war”. When the rockets stop, the bombing stops.

The second theory is that Israel wants the total destruction of Hamas, and there is evidence that Israel is deliberately not targeting all rocket firing sites in order to let a certain number of rockets be fired every day and thus have an excuse to keep going until they destroy Hamas completely. This does not, of course, mean that Israel could stop all firing, just that it could stop more if it wanted.

No-one thinks that the Israelis want to occupy Gaza.

HAMAS
Western intelligence agencies are sure that there is political division within Hamas. Those for continued rocket firing and those against. They are also convinced that the moderates are secretly trying to find ways of negotiating a ceasefire. The opinion here is that Hamas’s political, military and installation infrastructure has been almost totally destroyed and that the longer this continues, the harder it will be for Hamas to keep control after the fighting ends.

FIGHTING
There is evidence, again according to analysts, that Hamas is deliberately trying to attract Israeli forces into Gaza city and Khan Younés, heavily populated areas, in order to increase civilian casualties and in that way get international opinion on their side.
Analysts think that Hamas has concentrated fighters and weapons stockpiles in heavily populated areas.

THE POPULATION
Evidence is increasing that the population is beginning to ask questions about Hamas’s choices. There are several reports of Palestinian civilians seeing arms and ammunition be stored in mosques and other buildings. Fighters too. They cannot say anything because they could be shot as spies and this is said to have already happened on a couple of occasions. The Western press is also beginning to print interviews with Gazans who are worried about this tendency.

CONCLUSION
Most analysts agree that, whether they choose option one or two, the Israelis are determined to win this battle, and that they are doing so. They think that if Hamas keeps firing in retaliation, they will lose international support because high civilian casualty rates will make them ask serious questions about Hamas’s intentions. They think Hamas cannot win a military war, and so every day spent firing less and less rockets, with less and less effect, will lead even Europe to think that Hamas is prepared to let civilian lives be lost needlessly.

My take? Hamas should stop. This may backfire on them if they continue what is already a lost military battle.

The International Community, during post-conflict negotiations, must insist on strict limits being put on Israel’s and Hamas’s action in return for monitoring and aid help. Hamas was elected by the people, and should remain in power, which means I do not want them, by continuing to fire rockets which have no military impact and only lead to more civilian casualties. This only gives Israel an excuse for trying to destroy it entirely.

There are times when you have to know when to cut your losses....

Michael C